The non-ferrous metal industry is one of the important basic industries of the manufacturing industry and an important support for the realization of a manufacturing power. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") and the "Guiding Opinions on Creating a Good Market Environment to Promote the Structural Adjustment of Nonferrous Metals Industry to Promote Transformation and Increase Benefits" issued by the General Office of the State Council in June 2016 (Guo Ban Fa [2016] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions"), it will become a programmatic document to guide the development of non-ferrous metals industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The "Plan" puts forward that "during the '13th Five-Year Plan' period, the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the non-ferrous metal industry has made significant progress, and the quality and efficiency have been greatly improved. By the end of the '13th Five-Year Plan', my country's non-ferrous metal industry has entered the ranks of manufacturing powers." The main objectives are encouraging and expectant. The copper industry, which plays a pivotal role in the non-ferrous metal industry, how to implement the "Plan" and "Guiding Opinions" will directly affect the realization of the main goals of the "Plan.

The non-ferrous metal industry is one of the important basic industries of the manufacturing industry and an important support for the realization of a manufacturing power. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Nonferrous Metals Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan") and the "Guiding Opinions on Creating a Good Market Environment to Promote the Structural Adjustment of Nonferrous Metals Industry to Promote Transformation and Increase Benefits" issued by the General Office of the State Council in June 2016 (Guo Ban Fa [2016] No. 42, hereinafter referred to as the "Guiding Opinions"), it will become a programmatic document to guide the development of non-ferrous metals industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. The "Plan" puts forward that "during the '13th Five-Year Plan' period, the structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading of the non-ferrous metal industry has made significant progress, and the quality and efficiency have been greatly improved. By the end of the '13th Five-Year Plan', my country's non-ferrous metal industry has entered the ranks of manufacturing powers." The main objectives are encouraging and expectant. The copper industry, which plays a pivotal role in the non-ferrous metal industry, how to implement the "Plan" and "Guiding Opinions" will directly affect the realization of the main goals of the "Plan.

China has the basic conditions to build the world's non-ferrous metal copper industry power.

Since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", my country's copper industry has actively promoted transformation, structural adjustment, and transformation, and has fully or over-fulfilled the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" in terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, technological innovation, structural adjustment, environmental governance, and resource protection. Main goals. With independent intellectual property rights, large-diameter deep-hole mining, safe and efficient mining of complex ore deposits, continuous blowing of crude copper, and efficient utilization of scrap copper have reached the international leading level, and advanced copper smelting capacity has accounted for 99% of the country's total.

During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, refined copper production increased by 11.9 per year, apparent consumption increased by 8.9 per year, and copper production increased by 10.2 per year, all of which were close to or higher than the growth rate of non-ferrous metal production and apparent consumption in the same period, and higher than the growth rate of domestic GDP in the same period. The cumulative backward smelting capacity of copper was 2.88 million tons, and the comprehensive energy consumption of copper smelting was 256kg standard coal/ton, down 27.8 from 2010. The output was 2.95 million tons, 5 years average annual growth of 5.3; heavy metal pollutant emissions continue to decline. International cooperation has been continuously promoted, and a number of overseas resource bases and processing bases have been built and put into operation.

The integration of the two is gradually deepening. Computer simulation, intelligent control, big data, cloud platform and other technologies have been gradually applied to the production, management and service of copper enterprises. Important progress has been made in the digital and intelligent construction of large open-pit and underground mines in China. Copper smelting production intelligent control system, copper processing digital control molding technology, and "Internet"-based e-commerce platform have been gradually promoted, The level of industrial integration has been continuously improved.

Optimizing stock, guiding increment and taking the initiative to reduce volume are the key to resolving structural excess capacity.

In recent years, the scale of my country's copper industry has continued to expand, the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, the quality level has been continuously improved, and the international operation capabilities have been continuously enhanced, achieving rapid development. But at the same time, affected by changes in the international and domestic economic situation, the copper industry has accumulated long-term structural production capacity contradictions, market supply and demand imbalances and other deep-seated contradictions and problems gradually emerged. First, the copper industry is large in scale and the resource guarantee base is weak. In 2015, my country's copper output was 7.96 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the world's total output, and the dependence on foreign copper resources was close to 75%. Second, the apparent consumption of copper is huge and unsustainable. In 2015, my country's apparent copper consumption was about 11.47 million tons, accounting for about 50% of the world's total, and 6.23 times that of the United States' 2014 1.84 million tons; and since 2010, the world's annual copper consumption except my country has basically been around 12 million tons. Hovering. Third, environmental constraints are more prominent, and the task of sustainable development is arduous. Not only the task of domestic ecological environment construction is very arduous, but also affected by the policy changes, legal constraints and weak infrastructure of resource exporting countries, imported copper resources are facing new uncertainties. At the same time, the international climate change and carbon emission situation will become increasingly severe. The development of the industry is also facing outstanding problems such as difficult treatment of tailings and smelting slag, prevention and control of heavy metal pollution, and environmental protection relocation of urban enterprises. The task of green development is arduous.

The "Guiding Opinions" clearly put forward the requirements of "optimizing stocks, guiding increments, actively reducing quantities, and resolving structural excess capacity" in the guiding ideology. This is an organic whole, which can not be taken out of context and go its own way. Otherwise, the goal of resolving structural excess capacity will not be achieved, and the contradiction will be more prominent. "Active reduction" is often a passive act of last resort. The whole society should give more tolerance and understanding, and copper companies should be encouraged and strongly supported within their capabilities. On the other hand, "optimizing stock" and "guiding increment" should adhere to the combination of market leadership and government guidance, and if necessary, take the initiative to lend a helping hand to "active reduction" enterprises and regions, otherwise it will be a return to the old road of development of "adding more water and more water. Although the results of the US election have given a "shot in the arm" to boost confidence in the growth of world copper consumption during the 13th five-year Plan period, even if the US $5000 trillion in infrastructure investment promised during the election is fully realized, it is expected that US copper consumption will not exceed 3 million tons by 2020. Therefore, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, efforts to control the total production capacity of copper smelting in accordance with the overall requirements of the "Guiding Opinions" have a long way to go.

Firmly establishing and implementing the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness and sharing is the core.

Both the "Guiding Opinions" and the "Plan" clearly put forward in the guiding ideology to firmly establish and implement the development concept of innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing. This should not become a slogan, but should be combined with the actual situation of all walks of life., To implement it realistically. As far as the development of China's copper industry is concerned, I hope everyone can make the following thoughts and practices.

On innovation: we should strive to avoid narrowness and vulgarization. While adhering to technological innovation, we should closely focus on promoting supply side structural reform, optimize stock, guide increment and actively reduce volume, resolve structural excess capacity, promote enterprise technological progress, create a good business environment and increase efficiency. It is necessary to carefully review and summarize the experience and lessons of the diversified and innovative development model based on "paving new stalls" to expand production capacity in the past shortage economic environment, and carry out the reform and innovation of the operation and management mechanism with the courage and determination of strong men to adapt to the new Normal, lead the new normal, increase the development of new momentum and tangible economic benefits.

Regarding coordination: On the one hand, it is necessary to maximize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of the cadres and employees of the unit, introduce and use all complementary elements such as external talents and capital without sticking to one pattern, and be determined to break through the constraints on the development of the unit. The "dirty obstruction" link continuously improves the comparative competitiveness of the unit. On the other hand, we must do everything possible to innovate and coordinate the interest relationship between the "upstream and downstream, left and right banks" of the copper industry, and strive to avoid the misunderstanding of the development of the "whole industry chain" and increase structural excess capacity.

About green: the connotation of green is very rich and broad, but as far as copper mines and smelting (including recycling) production enterprises are concerned, the most important thing is to ensure efficient, clean and safe production. It is necessary to prevent minor failures and strictly implement the "Environmental Protection Law" and other relevant laws and regulations, and strive to prevent the occurrence of major safety and environmental accidents.

On opening up: the main thing is that leading cadres should be sharp and open-minded while firmly establishing the party constitution, party rules and party discipline awareness. In the process of "optimizing stocks and guiding increments", we must break through the constraints of traditional concepts, and actively develop a mixed-ownership economy in accordance with the "five-in-one" overall layout and the "four comprehensive" strategic deployment, and strive to avoid the "hollowing out" of the company. At the same time, it contributes to resolving the long-term accumulation of deep-seated contradictions such as structural overcapacity and market imbalance between supply and demand.

Regarding sharing: First, the cadres and employees of the unit should breathe and share the same destiny, share the development results of the unit, and jointly assume related responsibilities and risks; the second is to scientifically handle the relationship with various stakeholders to achieve long-term stable and friendly coexistence and benefits Sharing and risk sharing; third, it is also the most easily despised. It is necessary to adapt measures to local conditions and implement policies based on enterprises, and do everything possible to share the existing innovative development results, in particular, the production process and technology achievements that can be "combined with the army and the people" will strengthen technological innovation and expand market application. Strive to avoid everything from scratch, into a new passive situation.

Strengthening international capacity cooperation is an effective way

my country's copper resources are highly dependent on foreign countries, implement the "One Belt One Road" strategic deployment, and in accordance with the "Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Promoting International Cooperation in Production Capacity and Equipment Manufacturing" (Guo Fa [2015] No. 30), give full play to my country's copper smelting and deep processing technology, Equipment and talent advantages, support domestic enterprises to participate in large-scale scientific and technological cooperation plans such as international new materials and intelligent manufacturing, and carry out overseas cooperative investment, set up R & D centers and vocational education colleges abroad, build an international innovation cooperation platform, make full use of international innovation resources and markets, realize technological upgrading and establish a global production service system. This is not only an inevitable strategic choice for the development of China's copper industry, but also in line with the law of the development of the world's copper industry.

Comprehensive consideration of resources and energy, politics, law, market and other factors. my country's powerful copper enterprise groups should actively use the country to establish an international capacity cooperation project database, guide and support enterprises to combine major project construction, carry out the construction of overseas economic and trade cooperation zones, and drive the upstream and downstream enterprises of the industrial chain, advanced equipment, technology, design, engineering construction, Support policies for the export of the entire industrial chain such as standards and services, construction of smelting projects in resource-rich Central and Southern Africa, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, West Asia, the Middle East, South America and other regions, construction of deep processing projects in countries and regions with greater potential for non-ferrous metal consumption, the use of recycled metal recycling systems in developed countries and regions to build recycled non-ferrous metal smelting and processing capacity, and constantly improve international business capacity. However, relevant statistics show that since 2010, except for my country, the world's copper consumption has been hovering, and the proportion of copper consumption in the countries along the "Belt and Road" in the world's total consumption is also very low. Therefore, to strengthen international production capacity cooperation, efforts should be made to avoid the "hollowing out" of China's copper industry and aggravate the overcapacity of international copper smelting.

It is urgent to further strengthen the research on the law of refined copper consumption.

Relevant statistics show that from 1950 to 2015, my country's cumulative refined copper consumption has reached 0.1 billion tons, which not only exceeds Japan's total cumulative consumption in the same period, but also approaches the total cumulative consumption of the United States. In 2015, my country's per capita apparent consumption of refined copper was close to 7kg/year, which was twice the world's per capita level and 1.15 times that of the United States; my country's unit GDP refined copper consumption intensity was about 8 times that of the United States and 4 times that of the world. Assuming that according to the "Plan" in 2015, my country's apparent consumption of refined copper is 11.47 million tons/year, and the average annual growth rate during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is 3.3, by 2020, my country's apparent consumption of refined copper will reach 13.5 million tons/year. Exceeding the world's total refined copper consumption of 13.36 million tons/year in 1998. If we continue to calculate according to the plan that the growth rate of copper consumption will decrease with the change of economic development mode and the reduction of copper consumption and substitution caused by technological progress, it is estimated that the average annual growth rate of refined copper consumption in the 13th Five-Year Plan period will be 3.3, which is lower than the average annual growth rate of 8.9 in the 12th Five-Year Plan period to 3.3, even if the average annual growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is "0", from 2015 to 2025, my country's cumulative consumption of refined copper will also exceed 0.13 billion tons, which is equivalent to the total copper consumption of building a new China in 10 years. Is it possible that this is worth pondering? We firmly believe that China's status as a major producer and consumer of copper in the world cannot be changed, but the growth trend of copper consumption cannot be sustained for a long time, otherwise there is neither practice to prove nor the law of development.